Chinese Debt in Africa
Boadiwaa
5/20/2022
Overview of Report
Description
This is a brief descriptive report highlighting some finds from a quick analysis of a Kaggle Dataset on Chinese Debt in 50 countries from Africa. There were 1188 observations in the dataset with 7 variables named: “S.no”,“Project”,“Year”, “Lender”,“$ Allocation”,“Country” and “Invested On”.
The major variable of interest was the Allocation (Debt) amount in dollars.
Contents of the Report:
- Biggest Lenders(allocation-wise)
- Frequent Borrowers
- How the 50 African countries fared in terms of borrowing
- Most Invested Sectors
- Each Country’s Biggest Loan
- Lending trend over the years
- Top 5 borrowers vs. Bottom 5 borrowers
- Spending Behavior of the Top 3 Borrowers
- Zooming in on West Africa
- Sneak Peek on Ghana
Biggest Lenders
| Chinese Lender | Loan Amount |
|---|---|
| CHEXIM | $87.0B |
| CDB | $38.8B |
| ICBC | $9.9B |
| MixedCN: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC), Export-Import Bank of China (CHEXIM), Bank of China (BoC), China Construction Bank (CCB), China Minsheng Bank, Ping An Bank Co., Ltd., Bank of China (BoC) | $3.7B |
| Zhongxing Telecommunication Equipment Corporation (ZTE) | $2.6B |
| MixedCN: CHEXIM, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Minsheng Bank, China CITIC Bank, Construction Bank, Kuwait National Bank, and HSBC | $2.5B |
| CIDCA | $2.2B |
| BoC | $2.0B |
| MixedCN: Export-Import Bank of China (CHEXIM), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC) | $1.5B |
| China Machinery Engineering Corporation (CMEC) | $1.4B |
Top 10 Frequent Borrowers
| Rank | Country | Frequency of Loan Entries |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angola | 254 |
| 2 | Zambia | 78 |
| 3 | Sudan | 66 |
| 4 | Democratic Republic of Congo | 59 |
| 5 | Ghana | 53 |
| 6 | Ethiopia | 52 |
| 7 | Cameroon | 45 |
| 8 | Kenya | 43 |
| 9 | Republic of Congo | 36 |
| 10 | Mauritius | 31 |
The African Countries and Their Total Loan Amounts
| Rank | Country | Loan Amount |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angola | $42.6B |
| 2 | Ethiopia | $13.7B |
| 3 | Zambia | $10.0B |
| 4 | Kenya | $9.3B |
| 5 | Egypt | $7.8B |
| 6 | Nigeria | $7.3B |
| 7 | Cameroon | $6.2B |
| 8 | South Africa | $5.4B |
| 9 | Republic of Congo | $5.4B |
| 10 | Ghana | $5.3B |
| 11 | Sudan | $4.8B |
| 12 | Cote d’Ivoire | $3.6B |
| 13 | Uganda | $3.6B |
| 14 | Zimbabwe | $3.0B |
| 15 | Equatorial Guinea | $3.0B |
| 16 | Guinea | $2.7B |
| 17 | Regional | $2.4B |
| 18 | Mozambique | $2.4B |
| 19 | Democratic Republic of Congo | $2.3B |
| 20 | Tanzania | $2.1B |
| 21 | Senegal | $2.0B |
| 22 | Gabon | $1.7B |
| 23 | Djibouti | $1.5B |
| 24 | Morocco | $1.2B |
| 25 | Botswana | $951.0M |
| 26 | Chad | $770.0M |
| 27 | Sierra Leone | $752.0M |
| 28 | Mali | $731.0M |
| 29 | Niger | $699.0M |
| 30 | Togo | $687.0M |
| 31 | Mauritania | $657.0M |
| 32 | Eritrea | $631.0M |
| 33 | Rwanda | $629.0M |
| 34 | Mauritius | $626.0M |
| 35 | Benin | $536.0M |
| 36 | Namibia | $500.0M |
| 37 | Madagascar | $468.0M |
| 38 | South Sudan | $407.0M |
| 39 | Malawi | $264.0M |
| 40 | Lesotho | $193.0M |
| 41 | Central African Republic | $164.0M |
| 42 | Burkina Faso | $157.0M |
| 43 | Tunisia | $131.0M |
| 44 | Burundi | $128.0M |
| 45 | Comoros | $122.0M |
| 46 | Liberia | $55.0M |
| 47 | Cape Verde | $49.0M |
| 48 | Seychelles | $35.0M |
| 49 | The Gambia | $25.0M |
| 50 | Algeria | $9.0M |
Most Invested Sectors
| Rank | Sector | Loan Amount |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Transportation | $46.8B |
| 2 | Power | $40.5B |
| 3 | Mining | $18.0B |
| 4 | ICT | $13.5B |
| 5 | Water | $7.4B |
| 6 | Other social | $5.6B |
| 7 | Multisector | $3.8B |
| 8 | Industry | $3.6B |
| 9 | Defense | $3.5B |
| 10 | Government | $3.4B |
| 11 | Banking | $2.5B |
| 12 | Unallocated | $2.5B |
| 13 | Agriculture | $2.2B |
| 14 | Budget | $2.1B |
| 15 | Education | $1.7B |
| 16 | Business | $1.5B |
| 17 | Health | $1.0B |
| 18 | Trade | $139.0M |
| 19 | Other commodity | $100.0M |
| 20 | Food | $46.0M |
| 21 | Environment | $38.0M |
Each Country’s Biggest Loan
| Project | Year | Lender | $ Allocation | Country | Invested On |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic and Technical Agreement | 2002-05-20 | CIDCA | $6M | Algeria | Unallocated |
| Sonangol Recapitalization | 2016-05-20 | CDB | $10.0B | Angola | Mining |
| Akassato-Bohicon Road Lot 3, 72.1km | 2013-05-20 | CHEXIM | $132M | Benin | Transportation |
| Morupule B Coal-Fired Power Station Expansion Project 600MW | 2009-05-20 | ICBC | $825M | Botswana | Power |
| SMART Burkina Project | 2020-05-20 | CHEXIM | $80M | Burkina Faso | ICT |
| Digital Broadcasting Upgrade | 2017-05-20 | CHEXIM | $33M | Burundi | ICT |
| Yaounde Potable Water Supply from Sanaga River (PAEPYS) | 2015-05-20 | CHEXIM | $678M | Cameroon | Water |
| E-government Phase I - National Data Center | 2010-05-20 | CHEXIM | $17M | Cape Verde | ICT |
| Mobile and Fixed Network | 2005-05-20 | Zhongxing Telecommunication Equipment Corporation (ZTE) | $60M | Central African Republic | ICT |
| N’Djarmaya Oil Refinery | 2011-05-20 | CHEXIM | $330M | Chad | Industry |
| Network Modernization Project | 2018-05-20 | CHEXIM | $82M | Comoros | ICT |
| Abidjan Port Expansion | 2014-05-20 | CHEXIM | $793M | Cote d’Ivoire | Transportation |
| Zongo II Hydropower Station 150MW | 2011-05-20 | CHEXIM | $367M | Democratic Republic of Congo | Power |
| Addis-Djibouti Railway (Djibouti share), 100km, Ali Sabieh to Nagad | 2013-05-20 | CHEXIM | $492M | Djibouti | Transportation |
| New Cairo City Central Business District | 2019-05-20 | MixedCN: CHEXIM, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Minsheng Bank, China CITIC Bank, Construction Bank, Kuwait National Bank, and HSBC | $2.5B | Egypt | Government |
| Malabo, Bata, and Ruba- 4,800 Units of Social Housing | 2007-05-20 | CHEXIM | $380M | Equatorial Guinea | Other social |
| Agro-processing Projects - 3 Food Cold Storage Warehouses in 3 Cities, 1 Canning Factory, Drip-irrigation PVC Pipe Production Factory | 2012-05-20 | CHEXIM | $101M | Eritrea | Industry |
| Millenium Plan Telecom Project Phase I, II, III | 2006-05-20 | Zhongxing Telecommunication Equipment Corporation (ZTE) | $1.9B | Ethiopia | ICT |
| Port Gentil-Omboue Road and Booue Bridge, 93km, CommL Portion | 2013-05-20 | CHEXIM | $493M | Gabon | Transportation |
| Western Corridor Gas Infrastructure Project, Jubilee Oil Field | 2012-05-20 | CDB | $850M | Ghana | Power |
| Souapiti Hydropower Project 450MW | 2018-05-20 | CHEXIM | $1.2B | Guinea | Power |
| SGR Phase I - Mombasa to Nairobi 472.3km (CommL portion, total 3.6bn) | 2014-05-20 | CHEXIM | $2.0B | Kenya | Transportation |
| Ha-Mpiti to SehlabaThebe Road 92km | 2018-05-20 | CHEXIM | $98M | Lesotho | Transportation |
| Roberts International Airport Rehabilitation | 2017-05-20 | CHEXIM | $50M | Liberia | Transportation |
| Rehabilitation of National Road RN5A Ambilobe-Vohemar, 150km | 2019-05-20 | CHEXIM | $157M | Madagascar | Transportation |
| Bingu International Conference Center, The Presidential Hotel and Presidential Villas | 2009-05-20 | CHEXIM | $92M | Malawi | Other social |
| Mali Digital 2020 (Mali Numerique 2020) | 2018-05-20 | CHEXIM | $164M | Mali | ICT |
| Nouakchott Friendship Port Expansion | 2009-05-20 | CHEXIM | $293M | Mauritania | Transportation |
| Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (SSR) Upgrade - Passenger Terminal | 2009-05-20 | CHEXIM | $260M | Mauritius | Transportation |
| Equipment purchase | 2008-05-20 | CHEXIM | $515M | Morocco | Unallocated |
| Maputo-Catembe Bridge, Katembe Bridge/Ponta D’Ouro Road, 3km | 2012-05-20 | CHEXIM | $682M | Mozambique | Transportation |
| Purchase of 10% Stake in Husab Uranium Mine | 2012-05-20 | Swakop Uranium (SU) | $223M | Namibia | Mining |
| SORAZ Oil Refinery Near Zinder | 2008-05-20 | CHEXIM | $352M | Niger | Industry |
| Lagos-Ibadan Railway Modernisation Project II | 2017-05-20 | CHEXIM | $1.3B | Nigeria | Transportation |
| Afreximbank: Medium to Long Term Financing for Sub- Projects in Various Sector | 2018-05-20 | CDB | $500M | Regional | Banking |
| National Route 1, Pointe-Noire-Brazzaville Road, Phase II (Dolisie-Brazzaville, 376km) | 2012-05-20 | CHEXIM | $1.2B | Republic of Congo | Transportation |
| Nyabarongo River Dam II, 224MW; 110kV Evacuation Transmission Line | 2020-05-20 | CHEXIM | $214M | Rwanda | Power |
| Thies-Touba Toll Highway, 113km | 2015-05-20 | CHEXIM | $689M | Senegal | Transportation |
| Les Mamelles Housing Project Phase I - 203 Units | 2007-05-20 | CHEXIM | $14M | Seychelles | Other social |
| Queen Elizabeth II Quay Update | 2017-05-20 | ICBC | $659M | Sierra Leone | Transportation |
| Medupi Coal Power Plant expansion (6X794=4800MW) | 2017-05-20 | CDB | $1.5B | South Africa | Power |
| Air Traffic Management System | 2018-05-20 | CHEXIM | $249M | South Sudan | Transportation |
| Al Fulah Gas-Power Plant 300 MW | 2009-05-20 | CHEXIM | $612M | Sudan | Power |
| Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) Natural Gas Processing Plants and Pipeline, PEBC part (Mnazi Bay to Dar es Salaam - Mtwara Province Gas Pipeline, 432km) | 2012-05-20 | CHEXIM | $920M | Tanzania | Power |
| Gambia National Broadband Network Project | 2018-05-20 | CHEXIM | $25M | The Gambia | ICT |
| Phase I Togolese Road Network Renovation - Lome bypass, Aledjo Fault bypass, Montagne de Defale bypass, Asphalting of N1 between Tandjouare and Cinkasse (Togo-Burkina border), 12.1km | 2009-05-20 | CHEXIM | $99M | Togo | Transportation |
| Purchase of 20 trains | 2009-05-20 | CHEXIM | $80M | Tunisia | Transportation |
| PEBC part- Karuma Hydropower Project 600MW; 400kV Karuma-Kawanda & 400kV Karuma-Olwiyo & 80km Karuma-Lira Transmission Lines, 132kV; 6 Substations 400kV | 2015-05-20 | CHEXIM | $789M | Uganda | Power |
| Kafue Gorge Lower Hydropower Project, 750MW | 2017-05-20 | MixedCN: Export-Import Bank of China (CHEXIM), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (ICBC) | $1.5B | Zambia | Power |
| Hwange Coal Power Station Expansion 600MW Phase III - Units 7&8 | 2016-05-20 | CHEXIM | $998M | Zimbabwe | Power |
Lending trend over the years
Top 5 vs Bottom 5 Borrowers
The following two charts compares the borrowing patterns of the highest and lowest borrowers in Africa.The colored ribbon shows the 95% confidence interval and the colored line represents the linear regression model.
Aside the noticeable difference in the amounts usually borrowed, there is a stark contrast in the frequency of borrowing. *(NB: Some outliers were taken out so the highest value on the y-axis does not indicate the highest amount borrowed.)
Most Invested vs Least Invested Sector (by the top 3 borrowers)
As shown below, Africa’s top 3 borrowers spent the most on Mining and the least on the Environment. Quite ironic! 
Spotlight on West Africa
Here’s an overview of how the 16 countries in West Africa fared: The first graph gives a sense of the usual borrowed amounts per country, and the 2nd shows the total amount borrowed over the period per country.
Ghana’s Tale
At the tail of this report, we take a quick peek at Ghana. We look at Ghana’s investment patterns and see the sad story of its most invested area.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME!